Ethereum sell-off resumes with ETH price risking another 25% decline in June


Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) slumped on June 16, suggesting that its reduction rally, coinciding with the Federal Reserve announcing it would hike the benchmark fee by 0.75%, is in danger.

Ether bulls trapped?

Ether’s price slipped by 9.2% to round $1,120 per token a day after it rebounded by 23% after dropping to virtually $1,000, its worst stage since January 2021.

The ETH/USD pair’s upside transfer, adopted by a pointy correction, appeared in tandem with U.S. shares, confirming that it traded like a risk-asset.

ETH/USD and Nasdaq each day correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView

The decline signifies that Ether has shed 77% of its worth since November 2021 and is now buying and selling under its “realized price” of $1,740, information from Glassnode shows.

Ethereum realized value (USD). Supply: Glassnode

As well as, the next rate of interest surroundings provides extra promoting strain, with buyers leaving high-risk trades and seeking security in conventional hedging belongings, comparable to money. 

Buyers’ religion in cryptocurrencies has additionally eroded following the collapse of Terra (initially LUNA, now LUNC), a $40 billion algorithmic stablecoin challenge, and lending platform Celsius Community’s decision to halt withdrawals.

Atop that, Three Arrow Capital, a crypto hedge fund that oversaw practically $10 billion in Might 2022, reportedly faces insolvency risks. Fears about systemic dangers have additional restricted the crypto market’s restoration bias, hurting Ether.

From a technical perspective, Ether’s current positive factors seem like a bear market rally, which may very well be because of buyers covering their short trades.

Intimately, buyers shut their quick positions by shopping for the underlying asset again available on the market—usually at a value lower than the one on the time of borrowing—and returning them to the lender. That prompts the asset to rally between giant draw back strikes, but it surely doesn’t signify a bullish reversal. 

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These minor rallies may very well be a bull entice for buyers that mistakenly see the rebound as a sign of bottoming out.

However, skilled bears make the most of the pump to open new quick positions on the native value high, understanding that nothing has essentially modified concerning the market.

ETH “bear pennant” hints at extra losses forward

Ether’s “bear pennant” on shorter-timeframe charts also supports a bull trap scenario.

Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns that form as the price consolidates inside a triangle-shaped structure after a strong downside move.

As a rule of technical analysis, traders measure a bear pennant’s profit target by subtracting the breakdow point from the height of the previous decline (called “flagpole”), as shown below.

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ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring “bear pennant.” Source: TradingView

This puts the next bear target for ETH price at $850, down almost 25% from June 16’s price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.